Minnesota Real Estate Market: Predictions for 2024

Minnesota homes continued to sell at eye-popping prices last month. The median home sale price rose 4.1% year-over-year from $310,700 to $323,600 in January. The number of homes sold also increased by 250 homes to 3,213.

Interest rates are at 7.28%, but is Minnesota still a seller’s market? Let’s look at the facts

Edina homes sold for a median sale price of $555,000 in January, up 23.3% year-over-year. Homes in Richfield sold for a median sale price of $337,500, a 7.1% increase year-over-year.

Interest rates are at record highs, with few home buyers. But the inventory is so low that 10.2% of homes sold above the list price!

• If You Are a Home Buyer: You can avoid bidding wars and avail seller concessions if you buy a home now. The 7.28% interest rate and mortgage payments are significant, but rates are unlikely to drop in the next few months. If they do, you can refi.
• If You Are a Home Seller: You can lock in Minnesota’s high home prices. Homes listed on MLS sell faster and for 17.5% more than off-MLS homes. That could be thousands of dollars in additional proceeds if you sell via Houzeo.

The current Minnesota real estate market statistics don’t reflect the national trend of high demand and low supply. Home sales and property prices in Minnesota increased despite 2023’s slow market.

So, How Is the Real Estate Market in Minnesota?

Swell! Home values in Minnesota rose by 66.3% in the last 5 years. Home sales increased by 0.9% in January 2024 YoY despite the mortgage rate climbing to 7.28%! So, Minnesota’s housing market is strong, if not bullish.

Even if mortgage rates continue to increase alarmingly, home sales will not falter. So, if you want to sell a Minnesota property, now is the right time to list it on MLS.

» What is My Home’s Worth in 2024: Find your home’s market value in amid 2024’s current housing trends.

Minnesota Real Estate Market Statistics

• Average Home Prices: The average median home price in Minnesota is $323,600, up by 4.1% YoY. In 2024, experts predict the median sale price will increase due to the tight inventory. Currently, the sale-to-list price ratio is at 98.3%, with an increase of 0.2 pt YoY compared to January 2023.
• Home Sales: As per January 2024 data, home sales increased by 8.4% YoY! In January 2023, 2,963 homes were sold, down from 3,213 in January 2023.
• Average Rent Prices: Rental costs vary statewide. An average tenant in Blaine pays $1,497, while the one living in Richfield pays $1,236.
• Median Days on Market: The median days on the market for homes for sale was 46 days, no change YoY.
• Pending Sales: The number of homes for sale increased by 7.8% YoY compared to 2022. Currently, there are 12,883 homes for sale in Minnesota.
• Months of Supply: The average months of supply is 2 month. MN’s demand can’t be satiated with the low supply. MN’s house scarcity is worse than the national housing market.

Minnesota Housing Market Predictions 2024

Minnesotans have survived the shockwaves of skyrocketing mortgage rates and rising home prices of 2023. Here’s what we predict for Minnesota’s housing market:

1. Home Sellers Will Return to the Market in 2024: Sellers who chose the sidelines in 2023 will come back. Especially those who can’t avoid new jobs or want to move to a cheap place. Whitney, the analyst who predicted the 2008 financial crisis accurately, has forecasted that baby boomers looking to downsize will also add up to 30 million housing units. Yowaza!
2. Mortgage Interest Rates Will Stabilize by the 2nd Half of 2024: Mortgage rates hit 7.79% in October 2023, the highest level in 23 years. However, the rate dropped to 7.35% in November due to the softening labor market and slowing economy. Even the annual inflation rate went from 3.7% to 3.2%. We think the rates will remain above 6%, but they will stabilize in the second half.
3. The Number of Home Buyers Will Rise: The historically high interest rates averted buyers in 2023. But mortgage demand rose after the interest rates lowered to 7.35% in November. The easing inflation and stabilizing rates will bring back house hunters.
4. Home Prices Will Continue to Rise: Home prices rose steadily in the top metros across MN YoY, reaching $310K in January 2024. Experts predict home prices will continue to rise until the low supply-high demand dynamic changes.
5. New Home Constructions Sales Will Increase: 12.3% of homes purchased in September were new homes, the highest since 2022. Home builders offered $30,000 worth of concessions to attract buyers in 2023. We think builders and sellers will compete for buyers in 2024.
6. iBuyers Will Continue to Make Lowball Offers: iBuyers offered 104.1% of market value in 2021. They offered 86% in 2022 and around 70% in 2023. Opendoor and Offerpad have lost billions of dollars in 2023. As they struggle to survive, they will make lowball offers.

Bonus Prediction: Buyer Broker Commissions Will Be Negotiable!

In a shocking turn of events, the jury in Missouri awarded more than $5 billion in damages to the Sitzer-Burnett plaintiffs. This motivated nationwide home sellers to file grievances against NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule.

NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule or Participation Rule states that listing brokers must offer competitive compensation to buyer agents if they want to list properties on an NAR-affiliated MLS.

Lawsuits like Moehrl, Gibson, Batton, Nosalek, and Batton 2 challenge the Participation Rule. They accuse NAR and other top real estate companies of colluding and conspiring to keep agent commissions high.

If the jury also finds the defendants guilty in these cases, buyer agent compensation may change. Buyer agents may become obsolete by 2025! Phew.

While buyer agents are unlikely to be obsolete in 2024, they may be open to negotiating commissions. That’s probably how they will still have some skin in the game.

When Will the Housing Market Crash in Minnesota?

A housing market crash in Minnesota is unlikely.

Minnesota’s robust economy and affordable cost of living will continue to attract buyers.

Minnesota’s job market is also strong. The unemployment rate is at 2.90%. In fact, Minnesota’s private sector employment grew by 2.5% in September 2023, faster than the national average of 2.0%. And Minnesota’s friendly tax policies are a cherry on the top.

The average cost of living in Minnesota is $24,572. The median household income is $73,000. Living near the rolling hills and verdant forests of Minnesota is relatively affordable. It is unlikely that Minnesota’s housing market will crash anytime soon.

2024: Is It a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?

2024 will be a terrific market for sellers. (And buyers, too!)

Home prices in Minnesota are rising and will continue to rise till the supply-demand dynamic changes. The number of houses for sale in MN was only 13,000 in January 2024. There is very limited inventory to satiate the demand from house hunters. This also makes it the best time to sell a house in Minnesota.

In November, the mortgage rate plummeted from a two-decade-high rate of 8% to 7.28% adding more new listings on the market. This shows that those who refused to sell due to mortgage rate lock are finally acclimatizing to 7% rates. Come Spring 2024, more homeowners will follow suit and list properties on Minnesota MLS.

The increase in new home listings in Minnesota has also brought back home shoppers who were hugging the sidelines. In fact, the recent uptick in mortgage applications shows that buyers are returning.

House hunters who could not find affordable homes in 2023 will also start shopping in 2024. The demand for Minnesota houses will increase – and that’s why sellers may be able to dominate the market.

However, new builds will compete for attention from buyers. Home builders have persuaded buyers to buy new construction homes with mortgage buydowns worth $30K in 2023! Builders will continue offering concessions in 2024, and home sellers may have to wage wars against them.

Listings of new constructions, baby boomers looking to downsize, and desperate home sellers will flood the market in 2024. The properties for sale in Minnesota will increase. So, whether you are looking for a condo in Blaine or seeking to live in a co-op in Brooklyn Park, you will find your dream home next spring.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation of an offer, or any advice or recommendation. Houzeo doesn’t provide any legal or financial advice. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Houzeo Corp., its affiliates, or its employees. However, the author does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor does the author recommend that the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision.

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